Fragility Cycle Analyzer

Analyze how the four fragility cycles threaten development programs and compare protection levels across different capital structures.

Four Fragility Cycles

Analysis Parameters

Program Duration: 20 years

Capital Structure

Overall Vulnerability

72%

High risk of program disruption

Political Fragility

Elections and policy shifts can redirect or eliminate development programs based on ideology rather than effectiveness.

Common Disruptions

New government cancels predecessor's programs
Budget reallocation to different priorities
Policy reversal on health/education initiatives

RDF Protection

Capital placed in structures that don't require annual political approval. Cycle Constitution protects against casual interference.

Disruption Exposure (20-Year Program)

Expected number of cycle disruptions and probability of at least one major disruption

Protection by Capital Type

Compare how different capital structures protect against each fragility cycle (higher = better protected)

Why RDF Outperforms

Traditional development finance is vulnerable to all four fragility cycles simultaneously. A program might survive political change only to be cut during a recession, then survive that only to lose key staff. RDF addresses all four through structural decoupling (δK/δF = 0) and mission alignment (K(t) = M(t)).