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Short-term, volatile cycles that can disrupt long-horizon missions if they control capital flows. Four types: Financial (markets, recessions), Political (elections, policy shifts), Capability (staff turnover, leadership changes), and Civic (public attention, donor fatigue).
A 100-year climate adaptation project fails because it's governed by 4-year political cycles—when governments change, funding disappears. This is political fragility disrupting mission alignment.
RCA Section 2.2