Temporal Asymmetry
Why political cycles systematically destroy long-term infrastructure value. The structural mismatch that makes PPPs fail regardless of contract quality.
The 60-Second Version
Infrastructure requires decades. Politics operates in years. This temporal asymmetry isn't a bug—it's the core architectural flaw.
When a 4-year electoral cycle governs a 30-year infrastructure investment, every incentive points toward front-loading benefits and deferring costs. Ribbon-cutting beats maintenance. Announcements beat delivery. Current budgets beat future service quality.
This isn't corruption or incompetence—it's rational behaviour given the incentive structure. Officials who prioritise long-term value get replaced by those who deliver short-term wins.
Until governance cycles align with infrastructure cycles, PPPs will continue transferring public value to private returns through structurally predictable mechanisms.
The Four Cycle Mismatches
Infrastructure operates on 30-50 year timescales. But it's governed by cycles that are systematically shorter:
Electoral Cycles
4-5 yearsPoliticians optimise for election cycles, not infrastructure lifecycles
Example: Ribbon-cutting bias: new projects favoured over maintenance
Budget Cycles
1 yearAnnual appropriations misaligned with multi-decade capital needs
Example: Use-it-or-lose-it spending that rewards quick deployment over quality
Career Cycles
2-3 yearsOfficial tenure shorter than project delivery timelines
Example: No one accountable for decisions made by predecessors
Contract Cycles
25-30 yearsLong-term contracts written by short-term actors
Example: Incomplete contracts that assume stable political conditions
Why This Matters
For Infrastructure Policy
Better contracts won't fix temporal asymmetry. The governance architecture itself must change—independent authorities, dedicated funding, lifecycle mandates.
For Regenerative Capital
PSC and RCA provide frameworks for decoupling infrastructure funding from political cycles—creating structural alignment where contracts cannot.
Part of the PPP Series
This paper establishes the temporal foundation for understanding why PPPs fail structurally, not contingently.
Read the Paper
Explore the full analysis of temporal asymmetry in infrastructure governance.
View PaperRelated: Public Capital Continuity
Our program for designing infrastructure capital that survives political cycles.
Learn More