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PPP Series • Paper 2

Temporal Asymmetry

Why political cycles systematically destroy long-term infrastructure value. The structural mismatch that makes PPPs fail regardless of contract quality.

SDGs:
9
11
16
17

The 60-Second Version

Infrastructure requires decades. Politics operates in years. This temporal asymmetry isn't a bug—it's the core architectural flaw.

When a 4-year electoral cycle governs a 30-year infrastructure investment, every incentive points toward front-loading benefits and deferring costs. Ribbon-cutting beats maintenance. Announcements beat delivery. Current budgets beat future service quality.

This isn't corruption or incompetence—it's rational behaviour given the incentive structure. Officials who prioritise long-term value get replaced by those who deliver short-term wins.

Until governance cycles align with infrastructure cycles, PPPs will continue transferring public value to private returns through structurally predictable mechanisms.

The Four Cycle Mismatches

Infrastructure operates on 30-50 year timescales. But it's governed by cycles that are systematically shorter:

Electoral Cycles

4-5 years

Politicians optimise for election cycles, not infrastructure lifecycles

Example: Ribbon-cutting bias: new projects favoured over maintenance

Budget Cycles

1 year

Annual appropriations misaligned with multi-decade capital needs

Example: Use-it-or-lose-it spending that rewards quick deployment over quality

Career Cycles

2-3 years

Official tenure shorter than project delivery timelines

Example: No one accountable for decisions made by predecessors

Contract Cycles

25-30 years

Long-term contracts written by short-term actors

Example: Incomplete contracts that assume stable political conditions

Why This Matters

For Infrastructure Policy

Better contracts won't fix temporal asymmetry. The governance architecture itself must change—independent authorities, dedicated funding, lifecycle mandates.

For Regenerative Capital

PSC and RCA provide frameworks for decoupling infrastructure funding from political cycles—creating structural alignment where contracts cannot.

Part of the PPP Series

This paper establishes the temporal foundation for understanding why PPPs fail structurally, not contingently.

Read the Paper

Explore the full analysis of temporal asymmetry in infrastructure governance.

View Paper

Related: Public Capital Continuity

Our program for designing infrastructure capital that survives political cycles.

Learn More