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10 years · 12 indicators · 2015-2024

The Fragility Cycle

Australia 2015–2024

Trust is falling. Division is rising. Why isn't anyone doing anything?
An LGIT analysis of Scanlon Foundation cohesion data.

Four Things the Data Doesn't Tell You

Scanlon publishes excellent cohesion data. But numbers alone don't answer the questions that matter. Here's what LGIT analysis reveals.

Question 1

Is this getting better or worse?

Holding steady

Trust is declining while division rises — but slowly. The system isn't recovering, but it's not spiraling either. It's frozen between states.

Question 2

Is there a dangerous pattern?

Yes — trust and grievance are inverting

As trust in government falls, identity-based grievances rise. Correlation: r = -0.71. This is the signature of a fragility cycle.

Question 3

Is everyone experiencing this equally?

No — some groups much more affected

Discrimination experiences vary significantly by group. The burden isn't distributed equally — it's concentrating.

Question 4

What triggered this?

COVID broke the social contract

Trust peaked at 54% in 2020 (rally effect), then collapsed to 31% by 2024. That's not normal fluctuation — it's a structural shift.

Data source: Scanlon Foundation Mapping Social Cohesion 2015–2024. Analysis: LGIT diagnostic framework applied by IRSA Institute.

Trust Fell Off a Cliff After COVID

The rally effect vanished — and took something with it

During COVID, Australians rallied around their government. Trust peaked at 54% in 2020. Then it collapsed. By 2024 it was down to 31% — a drop of 23 percentage points in just four years.

This isn't normal political disappointment. Trust has been falling at 3.8 points per year since COVID. At this rate, trust doesn't recover — it hollows out.

What this means

The social contract is being renegotiated — downward

When trust falls this fast after a crisis, it's not just disappointment. People are recalibrating their expectations of institutions. They're expecting less — and getting used to it.

Trust in Federal Government (%)

Source: Scanlon Foundation Mapping Social Cohesion Reports 2015–2024.

As Trust Falls, Division Rises

The dangerous pattern that precedes instability

Trust vs Category Salience Index

CSI = (Discrimination + Division) / 2. Higher CSI = identity-based grievances more salient.

Here's the pattern that should worry us: as trust in government falls, people feel more divided and report more discrimination. These things move together — in opposite directions.

-0.6

Trust falling (per year)

+0.4

Division rising (per year)

What this pattern tells us

Correlation: r = -0.71. When trust and grievance move in opposite directions, people look for someone to blame. That's how democracies become vulnerable.

Some Groups Feel It Much More

The burden isn't spread equally

When we talk about "social cohesion," we're talking about an average. But the average hides who's actually carrying the weight. Some groups report much higher discrimination than others.

When the gap between groups grows, it means the burden is concentrating. The majority might feel fine while specific communities are being left out.

What the gap tells us

The burden is concentrating

Asymmetry trend: -0.0 points per year. Some groups are falling further behind while others barely notice. That creates conditions for resentment and political mobilization.

Why this matters

When a legitimacy crisis hits, it doesn't hit everyone the same way. The people most affected are the ones who feel most betrayed — and they're the ones most likely to look for alternatives.

Discrimination Asymmetry (Most vs Least Affected)

Gap = difference between highest and lowest discrimination rates by subgroup.

Everything Got Worse After the Rally

All five cohesion measures are down from 2020

COVID gave Australia a moment of unity. Trust, belonging, acceptance — everything peaked in 2020. Then it all fell. Every single measure is now below 2020 levels.Some are at historic lows.

Overall Cohesion

90 (2015) → 78 (2024)

Sense of Belonging

93 (2015) → 77 (2024)

Acceptance

69 (2015) → 63 (2024)

The Fragility Trajectory

A decade of cohesion data reveals the anatomy of democratic fragility.

Signal	2015	2018	2020	2022	2024	Status
Trust in Government	42%	41%	54%	30%	31%	COLLAPSED
Division Perception	53%	57%	40%	66%	71%	SPIKING
Discrimination	12%	14%	18%	18%	20%	ELEVATED
Overall Cohesion	90	82	89	83	78	ERODING
Cycle Status	—	—	Rally	Frozen	Frozen	AT RISK

What This Means

The LGIT framework helps distinguish between cyclical fluctuations and structural shifts.

Recovering

Trust rising, salience falling. System returning to pre-shock equilibrium. No intervention needed.

Frozen (Current)

Trust declining but salience stable. Grievances persist without escalation. Requires targeted intervention.

Escalatory

Trust declining AND salience rising. Self-reinforcing loop. Requires systemic intervention.

Data Transparency

All data from Scanlon Foundation Mapping Social Cohesion Reports 2015–2024. Annual survey of 8,000+ Australians via Life in Australia™ panel.

Explore Data Methodology

Independent Research

• This is an independent analysis project. We are not affiliated with, endorsed by, or produced by the Scanlon Foundation.
• All data is extracted from publicly available PDF reports. We have made best efforts to ensure accuracy, but users should verify against original sources for critical applications.
• The LGIT metrics (Recovery Ratio, Persistence Index, Category Salience Index, etc.) are our analytical additions and are not present in the original Scanlon reports.

Signal

2015

2018

2020

2022

2024

Status

Trust in Government

42%

41%

54%

30%

31%

COLLAPSED

Division Perception

53%

57%

40%

66%

71%

SPIKING

Discrimination

12%

14%

18%

20%

ELEVATED

Overall Cohesion

ERODING

Cycle Status

—

Rally

Frozen

AT RISK