Working Draft — LGIT framework unpublished. Shared for feedback only. Please do not cite or distribute without permission.
The Fragility Cycle
Australia 2015–2024
Trust is falling. Division is rising. Why isn't anyone doing anything?
An LGIT analysis of Scanlon Foundation cohesion data.
Four Things the Data Doesn't Tell You
Scanlon publishes excellent cohesion data. But numbers alone don't answer the questions that matter. Here's what LGIT analysis reveals.
Is this getting better or worse?
Trust is declining while division rises — but slowly. The system isn't recovering, but it's not spiraling either. It's frozen between states.
Is there a dangerous pattern?
As trust in government falls, identity-based grievances rise. Correlation: r = -0.71. This is the signature of a fragility cycle.
Is everyone experiencing this equally?
Discrimination experiences vary significantly by group. The burden isn't distributed equally — it's concentrating.
What triggered this?
Trust peaked at 54% in 2020 (rally effect), then collapsed to 31% by 2024. That's not normal fluctuation — it's a structural shift.
Data source: Scanlon Foundation Mapping Social Cohesion 2015–2024. Analysis: LGIT diagnostic framework applied by IRSA Institute.
Trust Fell Off a Cliff After COVID
The rally effect vanished — and took something with it
During COVID, Australians rallied around their government. Trust peaked at 54% in 2020. Then it collapsed. By 2024 it was down to 31% — a drop of 23 percentage points in just four years.
This isn't normal political disappointment. Trust has been falling at 3.8 points per year since COVID. At this rate, trust doesn't recover — it hollows out.
When trust falls this fast after a crisis, it's not just disappointment. People are recalibrating their expectations of institutions. They're expecting less — and getting used to it.
Trust in Federal Government (%)
Source: Scanlon Foundation Mapping Social Cohesion Reports 2015–2024.
As Trust Falls, Division Rises
The dangerous pattern that precedes instability
Trust vs Category Salience Index
CSI = (Discrimination + Division) / 2. Higher CSI = identity-based grievances more salient.
Here's the pattern that should worry us: as trust in government falls, people feel more divided and report more discrimination. These things move together — in opposite directions.
Correlation: r = -0.71. When trust and grievance move in opposite directions, people look for someone to blame. That's how democracies become vulnerable.
Some Groups Feel It Much More
The burden isn't spread equally
When we talk about "social cohesion," we're talking about an average. But the average hides who's actually carrying the weight. Some groups report much higher discrimination than others.
When the gap between groups grows, it means the burden is concentrating. The majority might feel fine while specific communities are being left out.
Asymmetry trend: -0.0 points per year. Some groups are falling further behind while others barely notice. That creates conditions for resentment and political mobilization.
When a legitimacy crisis hits, it doesn't hit everyone the same way. The people most affected are the ones who feel most betrayed — and they're the ones most likely to look for alternatives.
Discrimination Asymmetry (Most vs Least Affected)
Gap = difference between highest and lowest discrimination rates by subgroup.
Everything Got Worse After the Rally
All five cohesion measures are down from 2020
COVID gave Australia a moment of unity. Trust, belonging, acceptance — everything peaked in 2020. Then it all fell. Every single measure is now below 2020 levels.Some are at historic lows.
Overall Cohesion
90 (2015) → 78 (2024)
Sense of Belonging
93 (2015) → 77 (2024)
Acceptance
69 (2015) → 63 (2024)
The Fragility Trajectory
A decade of cohesion data reveals the anatomy of democratic fragility.
| Signal | 2015 | 2018 | 2020 | 2022 | 2024 | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trust in Government | 42% | 41% | 54% | 30% | 31% | COLLAPSED |
| Division Perception | 53% | 57% | 40% | 66% | 71% | SPIKING |
| Discrimination | 12% | 14% | 18% | 18% | 20% | ELEVATED |
| Overall Cohesion | 90 | 82 | 89 | 83 | 78 | ERODING |
| Cycle Status | — | — | Rally | Frozen | Frozen | AT RISK |
What This Means
The LGIT framework helps distinguish between cyclical fluctuations and structural shifts.
Recovering
Trust rising, salience falling. System returning to pre-shock equilibrium. No intervention needed.
Frozen (Current)
Trust declining but salience stable. Grievances persist without escalation. Requires targeted intervention.
Escalatory
Trust declining AND salience rising. Self-reinforcing loop. Requires systemic intervention.
Data Transparency
All data from Scanlon Foundation Mapping Social Cohesion Reports 2015–2024. Annual survey of 8,000+ Australians via Life in Australia™ panel.