Working Draft — LGIT framework unpublished. Shared for feedback only. Please do not cite or distribute without permission.

Beyond This Pilot

Extending LGIT

The Scanlon analysis demonstrates LGIT on one dataset. The framework can go much deeper with richer data—and applies to any domain where legitimacy and trust matter.

What LGIT Can Do

LGIT is a diagnostic framework for understanding how trust and legitimacy behave over time. It transforms raw survey data into actionable intelligence.

Trend Detection

Linear regression on any time series to detect decay or recovery rates.

Divergence Analysis

Asymmetry Index tracking whether subgroups are converging or diverging over time.

Cycle Classification

Automatically classify systems as escalatory, frozen, stable, or recovering.

Inverse Relationship Detection

Identify when trust falls while salience rises—the signature of fragility.

Phase Analysis

Compare pre-shock, shock, and post-shock periods to assess recovery patterns.

Diagnostic Output

Generate human-readable findings with statistical backing (R², correlation, slopes).

How Deep Can LGIT Go?

The Scanlon pilot uses aggregate national data with limited subgroups. With richer data, LGIT can reveal much more.

1

What we have

Current Scanlon pilot capabilities

  • National aggregate trends
  • Birthplace subgroups (3 categories)
  • Annual snapshots (10 years)
  • 5 domain composite indices
2

What's possible

With richer survey breakdowns

  • Political orientation trajectories
  • Age cohort divergence detection
  • Geographic asymmetry mapping
  • Socioeconomic stratification
  • Event-linked shock analysis
3

Research-grade

What longitudinal studies enable

  • Track same individuals over time
  • Monthly/quarterly measurement
  • Identify causal pathways
  • Test intervention effectiveness
See HILDA concept study →

Extending the Scanlon Analysis

The current analysis scratches the surface. With additional data from Scanlon Foundation, we could answer much more specific questions about Australian social cohesion.

Political Orientation Splits

High Priority

How does trust/belonging differ between Labor, Liberal, Greens, One Nation voters?

Would reveal whether polarisation is symmetric or asymmetric—critical for intervention design.

Age Cohort Tracking

High Priority

Gen Z vs Millennials vs Gen X vs Boomers on all indicators.

Detect intergenerational divergence—are young Australians on a different trajectory?

Income/Education Stratification

Medium Priority

Trust and belonging by socioeconomic quintile.

Identify whether cohesion decline is class-stratified (extractive) or universal.

Geographic Granularity

Medium Priority

State, metro/regional, and electorate-level breakdowns.

Detect spatial heterogeneity—is the 'divided Australia' narrative accurate?

Panel Tracking (Individual Level)

High Priority

Follow same respondents over multiple years.

Distinguish individual trajectory shifts from compositional change. True decay detection.

Event-Linked Surveys

Medium Priority

Pulse surveys immediately after major events (elections, crises, policy changes).

Measure shock impact and recovery velocity with precision. Detect hysteresis.

Where Else Can LGIT Be Applied?

Any domain where trust, legitimacy, or belonging matter can benefit from LGIT analysis. The framework is sector-agnostic.

Corporate & Organisational

  • Employee trust & engagement surveys
  • ESG stakeholder sentiment tracking
  • Post-merger cultural integration
  • DEI initiative effectiveness
  • Leadership legitimacy after crises

Depth potential: Track trust by department, tenure, role level. Detect frozen cycles in specific teams.

Government & Public Sector

  • Citizen trust in institutions
  • HILDA panel data (17,000 Australians tracked since 2001)
  • Democratic health indicators
  • Public service legitimacy
  • Electoral/political polarisation

Depth potential: Panel studies like HILDA enable individual trajectory tracking—the gold standard for LGIT.

Media & Communications

  • Trust in journalism over time
  • Platform credibility tracking
  • Misinformation impact analysis
  • Audience fragmentation patterns
  • Editorial legitimacy cycles

Depth potential: Track trust by outlet, topic, political leaning. Identify escalatory cycles.

Education & Research

  • Institutional trust in universities
  • Student belonging trajectories
  • Academic freedom perceptions
  • Research integrity confidence
  • International student integration

Depth potential: Analyse by faculty, student origin, program type. Detect stalled integration.

Healthcare & Social Services

  • Patient trust in health systems
  • Vaccine confidence trajectories
  • Mental health service legitimacy
  • Community health worker trust
  • Disability services satisfaction

Depth potential: Track by condition, demographic, service type. Identify at-risk populations.

International & Comparative

  • Cross-country cohesion comparison
  • Migration & integration tracking
  • Trade relationship legitimacy
  • International institution trust
  • Cultural exchange effectiveness

Depth potential: Compare decay rates across nations. Identify policy transfer opportunities.

What Can Be Learned?

Early Warning

Detect fragility before it becomes crisis. Identify which subgroups are diverging from the mainstream before polarisation locks in.

Intervention Targeting

Know where to focus resources. A frozen cycle needs different treatment than an escalatory one. Asymmetry tells you who needs attention.

Impact Measurement

Measure whether initiatives are working. Did trust recover? Did asymmetry shrink? Did the cycle type improve? Empirical accountability.

Strategic Foresight

Understand trajectory, not just position. A system at 40% trust and improving is healthier than one at 50% and declining.

The Core Insight

Traditional surveys tell you what people think. LGIT tells you whether it will change—and in which direction.

Traditional Analysis
"Trust is at 33%"
LGIT Analysis
"Trust is declining at 3.7 pts/year while salience rises—an escalatory cycle that will reach critical fragility in 2-3 years without intervention"

What Can This Data Be Used For?

LGIT outputs aren't just academic. They drive real decisions.

Policy Design

Target policies at frozen vs escalatory cycles. Prioritise groups with growing asymmetry.

Board Reporting

Present legitimacy as a strategic asset with trend data. ESG beyond compliance.

Program Evaluation

Measure whether cohesion initiatives actually shift trajectories, not just snapshots.

Research Publication

Generate publishable findings on temporal dynamics of trust and identity.

Interested in Applying LGIT?

Whether you have existing survey data or need to design new measurement, the LGIT framework can help you understand legitimacy dynamics in your domain.

Get in Touch