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P(compliance)
The core equation of AoE: probability of compliance as a function of three weighted mechanisms—friction differential (F), identity coupling (I), and future-cycle access (C). When the sum exceeds threshold, compliance approaches certainty without enforcement.
A system with high F (preferred action is easy), moderate I (aligns with identity), and high C (valuable future access) achieves 95%+ compliance with zero enforcement budget.
AoE Section 3